Population Division - Fertility

Day of Eight Billion, 15 November 2022

BOUEDRAO — Tue, 25 Oct 2022 13:53:00 +0000

Tuesday, 01 November 2022 - 9:00am

On 15 November 2022, the world’s population is projected to reach 8 billion people, a milestone in human development. This unprecedented growth is due to the gradual increase in human lifespan owing to improvements in public health, nutrition, personal hygiene and medicine. It is also the result of high and persistent levels of fertility in some countries.

While it took the global population 12 years to grow from 7 to 8 billion, it will take approximately 15 years—until 2037— for it to reach 9 billion, a sign that the overall growth rate of the global population is slowing.

Countries with the highest fertility levels tend to be those with the lowest income per capita. Global population growth has therefore over time become increasingly concentrated among the world’s poorest countries, most of which are in sub-Saharan Africa. In these countries, sustained rapid population growth can thwart the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which remain the world’s best pathway toward a happy and healthy future.

Even though population growth magnifies the environmental impact of economic development, rising per capita incomes are the main driver of unsustainable patterns of production and consumption. The countries with the highest per capita consumption of material resources and emissions of greenhouse gas emissions tend to be those where income per capita is higher, not those where the population is growing rapidly.

Meeting the objectives of the Paris Agreement to limit global temperature rise, while achieving the SDGs, critically depends on curbing unsustainable patterns of production and consumption. Yet, slower population growth over many decades could help to mitigate the further accumulation of environmental damage in the second half of the current century.

Resources

tags:

Monday, 11 March 2002
Morning	I. Opening of the meeting II. Keynote address
Afternoon	III. Global issues impacting the fertility transition
Tuesday, 12 March 2002
Morning	IV. Levels, trends and determinants of fertility
Afternoon	V. National policies and programmes
Wednesday, 13 March 2002
Morning	VI. Future expectations for fertility
Afternoon	VII. Reflections by eminent persons
Thursday, 14 March 2002
Morning	VIII. Back to the Future: Proposed United Nations assumptions
Afternoon	IX. Rapporteur’s overview X. Conclusion XI. Closing of the Meeting

Wednesday, 2 December 2009
9:30 – 12:30	I. Opening session
	Hania Zlotnik, Director, United Nations Population Division. Projecting fertility: A history (presentation)
	II. Low fertility countries in Europe, Northern America, Australia and New Zealand
	Tomáš Sobotka, Czech Republic, Vienna Institute of Demography. European fertility trends and prospects (presentation) Gerda Neyer, Austria, Stockholm University. Effects of family policies on childbearing behaviour in developed countries (presentation) Hans-Peter Kohler, Germany, University of Pennsylvania. Why has fertility recently increased in many developed countries? (presentation)
14:00 – 17:30	III. Low fertility countries in Asia
	Gavin Jones, Australia, National University of Singapore. Recent fertility trends, policy responses and fertility prospects in low fertility countries of East and Southeast Asia (presentation) Gu Baochang, China, Renmin University of China. Fertility prospects in China (presentation) Ryuichi Kaneko, Japan, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research. Fertility prospects in Japan (presentation) Sergio DellaPergola, Israel, Hebrew University Jerusalem. Fertility prospects in Israel: Ever below replacement level? (presentation)
	IV. Arab countries –diversity in fertility levels
	Laila El-Zeini, Egypt, Cairo University. Fertility transition in Egypt and Morocco: Explaining the differences (presentation) John Casterline (USA), Ohio State University. Fertility levels and trends in Arab countries: Why so diverse and what are the prospects (presentation)
Thursday, 3 December 2009
9:30 – 12:30	V. Latin American fertility levels
	Suzana Cavenaghi, Brazil, ENCE/IBGE. Diversity of childbearing behaviour within population in the context of below replacement fertility in Brazil (presentation) Guiomar Bay, UN/ECLAC. Latin American fertility decline: Differences and commonalities Luis Rosero-Bixby, Costa Rica, University of Costa Rica. Is Latin America starting to retreat from early and universal childbearing? (presentation)
14:00 – 17:30	VI. Asian countries with intermediate fertility levels
	Carl Haub, USA, Population Reference Bureau. Fertility prospects in India (presentation) Zeba A. Sathar, Pakistan, Population Council. Fertility prospects in Pakistan (presentation) Terry Hull, Australia, Australian National University. Fertility prospects in South-Eastern Asia (presentation)
	VII. Prospects of fertility decline in Sub-Saharan Africa
	Tom Moultrie, South Africa, University of Cape Town. Stopping, spacing and postponing: The future of the African fertility decline (presentation) Jean-Pierre Guengant, France. Proximate determinants of fertility in Africa and their use in fertility projections (presentation)
Friday, 4 December 2009
9:30 – 12:30	VIII. Projecting fertility
	United Nations Population Division. The evolution of United Nations Population Division’s approach to projecting fertility Presentation of new methodology: Adrian Raftery, Ireland, University of Washington. : Overview of a Bayesian approach to projections Leontine Alkema, Netherlands, National University of Singapore. Methodology for Bayesian projection of fertility (presentation)
	Preliminary assessment of new methodology: United Nations Population Division. Implications for total fertility and population projections
14:00 – 17:30	IX. Panel discussion on projecting fertility
	Peter Johnson, USA, United States Census Bureau Joel Cohen, USA, Rockefeller University Nico Keilman, Norway, University of Oslo Timothy Dyson, United Kingdom, London School of Economics and Political Science Peter Way, USA, United States Census Bureau John Bongaarts, Netherlands, Population Council
	X. Closing

Monday, 02 November 2015
09:00 – 09:30	Session I: Opening of the meeting John Wilmoth, Population Division, UNDESA. Welcome Minja Kim Choe, East-West Center, Honolulu, HI. Overview of the project on Policy Responses to Low Fertility Vinod Mishra, Population Division, UNDESA. Scope and objectives of the meeting
09:30 – 11:00	Session II: Emergence of low fertility and its consequences Chair: Sangho Kim, Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs (KIHASA) Lina Bassarsky, Population Division, UNDESA. Overview of trends in fertility and population ageing Kirill Andreev, Population Division, UNDESA. Demographic implications of recent shift in China’s fertility policy S. Amer Ahmed, World Bank. Developmental consequences of demographic trends Tomas Sobotka, Vienna Institute of Demography and Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital, Austria. Macro factors behind low fertility Olivier Thevenon, French Institute for Demographic Studies (INED). Policy approaches in countries experiencing low fertility
11:15 – 12:45	Session III: Responses to low fertility and population ageing Moderator: Renata Kaczmarska, Division for Social Policy and Development, UNDESA Expert: Wendy Sigle, Gender Institute, London School of Economics and Political Science, United Kingdom Expert: Maria Letizia Tanturri, University of Padova, Italy Expert: Kyunghee Chung, Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs (KIHASA) Heonjoo Kim, Population and Child Policy Bureau, Republic of Korea, Policymaker perspective. Ann Pawliczko, United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), Regional/global perspective
14:45 – 16:15	Session IV: Context and policy options in countries with very low fertility Moderator: Nicolaas van Nimwegen, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute Expert: Gavin W. Jones, Australian Demographic and Social Research Institute, Australian National University Expert: Pau Baizan-Munoz, Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies (ICREA) and Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Spain Expert: Samsik Lee, Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs (KIHASA) Kittipong Sae-Jeng, Department of Health, Ministry of Public Health, Thailand. Policymaker perspective Vitalija Gaucaite Wittich, United Nations, Economic Commission for Europe. Regional/global perspective.
16:30 – 18:00	Session V: Context and policy lessons from countries with near-replacement fertility Moderator: Noriko O. Tsuya, Keio University, Japan
	Expert: Melinda C. Mills, University of Oxford, United Kingdom Expert: S. Philip Morgan, University of North Carolina, USA Expert: Sarah Brauner-Otto, McGill University, Canada Petter Odmark, Ministry of Health and Social Affairs, Sweden. Policymaker perspective Terry Hull, Australian National University, Regional/global perspective
Tuesday, 03 November 2015
09:00 – 10:30	Session VI: Policy options for countries approaching low fertility Moderator: Feng Wang, University of California, Irvine and Fudan University, China
	Expert: Zsolt Speder, Hungarian Demographic Research Institute Expert: Anne Gauthier, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute Expert: Ignacio Pardo, Universidad de la Republica, Uruguay Policymaker perspective: Jacques van Zuydam, Department for Social Development, South Africa Fabiana Del Popolo, United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean. Regional/global perspective
10:30 – 11:45	Session VII: Conclusions and recommendations Chair: Rachel Snow, United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA)
	Renata Kaczmarska, Nicolaas van Nimwegen, Noriko Tsuya and Feng Wang. Lessons learned and key policy priorities: reports from session moderators (sessions III-VI: 5-7 minutes each) Ronald R. Rindfuss, East-West Center and University of North Carolina; Minja Kim Choe, East-West Center, Honolulu, HI. Cross cutting issues Stuart Basten, University of Oxford, United Kingdom. Information gaps and data needs for monitoring policies
11:45 – 12:00	Session VIII: Closing John Wilmoth, Population Division, UNDESA. Closing remarks

Thursday, 13 October 2016
09:30 – 10:00	Session I: Opening of the meeting
	John Wilmoth, Director, Population Division/DESA [Opening remarks] Jorge Bravo, Population Division/DESA, Introduction and objectives of the meeting Mun Sim Lai, Population Division/DESA, Global overview of changing population age structures and sustainable development [presentation]
10:00 – 11:30	Social security in ageing societies
	Moderator: Vinicius Pinheiro, International Labour Organization Agnieszka Chlon-Dominczak, Warsaw School of Economics, Population ageing and social security in Europe [presentation] Rafael Rofman, World Bank, Ageing and social security in Latin America [presentation] Rafal Chomik, University of New, South Wales, Population ageing and social security in Asia [presentation]
13:30 – 15:00	Session III: Demographic and economic constraints to balancing work and family obligations
	Moderator: Yumiko Kamiya, Population Division Albert Esteve, Autonomous, University of Barcelona, Intergenerational coresidence around the world [presentation] Simone Wajnman, Federal, University of Minas Gerais, Demographic dynamics of family and work in Brazil [presentation] Gretchen Donehower, University of California, Berkeley, Gender, age and economic activity [presentation]
15:15 – 17:00	Session IV: New perspectives on ageing
	Moderator: Rosemary Lane, Division for Social Policy and Development Warren Sanderson, Stony Brook College, Age structure, mortality and prospective ageing [presentation] A life course approach to health and ageing: John Beard, World Health Organization (video) Amson Sibanda, Division for Social Policy and Development, Intergenerational socio-economic inequalities [presentation]
Friday, 14 October 2016
9:30 – 11:00	Session V: Fewer children and youth, with better health and education
	Moderator: Michael Herrmann, UNFPA Elina Pradhan, Harvard University, Fertility decline and education in developing countries [presentation] Ragui Assaad, University of Minnesota, Fertility trends, health of children and youth in Arab countries [presentation]
11:15 – 12:45	Session VI: Aggregate economic implications of changing age structures: The demographic dividend
	Moderator: Jorge Bravo, Population Division Vegard Skirbekk, Columbia University, Ageing, health and work potential (video conference) [presentation] Eliya Zulu, African Institute for Development Policy, Africa’s demographic transition and demographic dividend [presentation] Michael Abrigo, University of Hawaii, New international evidence on the demographic dividend [presentation]
12:45 – 13:00	Session VII: Closing
	Closing remarks: John Wilmoth, Population Division

Population Division - Fertility

Day of Eight Billion, 15 November 2022

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