In the last year, governments have pledged trillions of dollars in COVID-19 relief, creating what some observers have called a once-in-a-generation chance to make planet-friendly investments鈥攁nd save the Earth from a looming environmental catastrophe. But that doesn鈥檛 mean the path to a green recovery will be easy.
According to a recently launched听听by the Global Recovery Observatory only 2.5 per cent of all COVID-19 recovery spending will have 鈥減ositive green characteristics,鈥� like reducing greenhouse gas emissions and protecting natural capital.
The Observatory is tracking the fiscal rescue and recovery spending of the world鈥檚 fifty largest economies, to pin down the level of green spending built into rescue and recovery plans. The study is part of the broader Oxford University Economic Recovery Project, supported by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), the International Monetary Fund, and the Deutsche Gesellschaft f眉r Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ).
Researchers studied funds announced for both short-term 鈥渞escue鈥� and long-term recovery. They found that green spending is concentrated in wealthier countries and populations, threatening to reinforce dangerous pre-pandemic inequities.
鈥淧andemic recovery packages are a massive opportunity to accelerate action on the three crises facing humanity: climate change, biodiversity loss and pollution,鈥� said Steven Stone, Chief of Resources and Markets at UNEP. 鈥淲e must seize it or we risk scarring, saddling future generations with massive debt and a broken planet.鈥�
Spending so far
In 2020, US$368 billion was announced in national spending on programs that will reduce greenhouse gas emissions. While this is a large sum, it pales in comparison to the US$14.6 trillion in total spending announced by the fifty largest economies. Much of that larger number consists of spending that is not expressly green, which threatens reinforcing business as usual patterns of production and consumption that are ravaging the planet, the new report said.
Despite the severity of air pollution, which causes up to 9 million deaths annually, only 16 per cent of total recovery spending (excluding the European Commission) is deemed to potentially reduce air pollution. When it comes to preserving natural capital鈥攐r the global stock of natural resources鈥� and reversing ecosystem degradation, 鈥渙nly 3 per cent of recovery spending is deemed positive鈥�.
There are reasons for hope, though, the report said. Numerous countries are bucking trends and making substantial green investments. Poland, for instance, has put forth US$2.1 billion in a recovery push to position itself as a European leader in the production and adoption of electric vehicles. Spain has earmarked over US$ 7.2 billion for a recovery plan鈥� 鈥�Espa帽a Puede鈥濃�攎eant to spur a 鈥渏ust and inclusive energy transition鈥� through听direct investment.鈥�
Recovery requires long-term thinking
Most green spending is concentrated in countries with a history of driving green investment. The report points to Germany鈥檚 leadership, highlighting its US$ 8.3 billion investment in green hydrogen. And it said France, through a US$ 8.4 billion allotment to its sweeping 鈥淔rance Relance鈥� recovery program, has emerged as a leader in green building and energy efficiency retrofits.
While some Advanced Economies and the European Commission account for most of the green recovery spending, the report warns that 鈥渇or the vast majority of countries, recovery spending has been relatively low and minimally green.鈥� The economic ravages of the coronavirus are only exacerbating existing disparities鈥攁nd recovery spending鈥� between nations. The report points out that advanced economies are spending about 17 times more per person than what is being spent in emerging markets and developing economies.
The imbalance among nations reflects inequalities that exist within nations鈥攊nequalities that have only worsened during the pandemic. Disparities in health and healthcare access 鈥渓ed to the disease burden falling听听and otherwise marginalized groups,鈥� according to the report. Worldwide, those groups have also experienced the bulk of job losses and wage cuts.
The report urges decisionmakers to remember that focusing on short-term economic recovery could further exacerbate long-term social and environmental crises.鈥� As risks like climate change, pollution and biodiversity loss threaten, like COVID-19, to drive up poverty and inequalities, UNEP and partners are calling for increased ambition鈥攄irected and spending鈥� to chart a sustainable path.
鈥淩ebuilding and recovery will be a long process, and it will involve the greatest investment of public resources our world has ever seen,鈥� said Steven Stone. 鈥淭hankfully, the die isn鈥檛 yet cast. There is still time for countries to ensure that recovery and stimulus spending contributes to a better future for people and the planet.鈥�
UNEP itself is retooling for COVID-19 recovery. The organization鈥檚 recently launched听听for 2022-2025 sets out a vision to address climate change, biodiversity loss and pollution and maps out the actions needed to shift consumption and production patterns towards sustainability. It will bolster UNEP鈥檚 efforts to advance the environmental dimension of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.
For more information on how the world can stave off the worst effects of climate change, read the听听and the听.
