President of ECOSOC,
Excellencies,
Distinguished delegates,
Honorable panelists,
Ladies and Gentlemen,
Our discussions this afternoon are about the future – ways in which we can anticipate and prepare for it.
Especially after the last three years, there can be no question that developing capacities for looking ahead, and then acting on that knowledge are essential.
Practicing this type of foresight and preparedness is both a science and an art. I look forward to hearing from the experts and practitioners with us here today.
Ladies and gentlemen
We live in a world that is deeply interconnected at many different levels, and through many different channels – some natural and some man-made.
Shocks originating in one part of the world are amplified and rapidly transmitted to another.
The consequences of our own actions are felt far beyond our immediate neighbourhoods and communities.
In this age of the Anthropocene, impacts are also manifested at a planetary scale.
Long run underlying trends – such as population ageing, climate change or technological evolution – interact with sudden shocks – such as a pandemic or a war – to produce unexpected outcomes.
Making sense of all of this complexity so as to better inform policy making is a challenging task.
But, given where we are on the SDGs and on climate action, it is also urgent that we do so.
We cannot face the future blind.
Although we cannot know for sure what kind of shock will come next, the more we invest in developing credible forecasts and scenarios, and the more seriously we take them, the better prepared we will be.
Fortunately, we live at a time when vast amounts of data, improved analytical capacities and established forums for dialogue with policy makers and other stakeholders make this possible.
In my own Department, UN DESA, we collect, standardize and disseminate a wide range of global statistics.
You see some of this in the Secretary General’s annual Sustainable Development Goals Report that monitors the implementation of the 2030 Agenda.
Besides providing information on global progress towards the SDGs, the database is also the basis for scenario analysis undertaken by different stakeholders.
And this is just the tip of the iceberg.
Through the World Data Forum we are actively involved in spurring data innovation, working with big data and providing better data for sustainable development.
Our work with geospatial information systems enhances national capacities to work with these data sets, developing more nuanced models for sustainable development.
Despite big improvements in recent years, data gaps still exist in all SDG areas.
A renewed multilateral commitment to strengthen national statistical capacities in developing countries is essential for improving the data that will drive strategic foresight at all levels.
UN DESA also prepares the demographic trends and analysis that are the bedrock of all human-centred scenario building.
In the World Population Prospects 2022, launched just a few days ago, we estimate that the world population will reach 8 billion by the end of this year and peak towards the end of this century.
Demographic foresight- anticipating the nature and impacts of major shifts in population – can guide countries to plan for the changes, as well as to take actions that could change future trends.
Our forthcoming publication The World Social Report, takes just such an approach to examine the social and economic implications of population ageing.
These also inform our policy-focused work with the National Transfer Accounts Project, a group of research institutions, to support decision-makers in more than 90 countries.
UN DESA produces also the flagship World Economic Situation and Prospects report each year to lay out near-term macro-economic expectations for the world, based on intensive country-level modeling.
These models guide our scenario analysis and guide and support capacity-building in least developed countries.
Some of our other work on energy, technological change and sustainable development also relies on specialized modeling approaches.
Excellencies
Strategic forecasters must have strong technical skills, but also be able to engage with policy makers, civil society and other stakeholders.
That is the only way we can expect to actually bring about change.
At the ECOSOC High Level Segment, the HLPF, the STI Forum and other such venues we are able to nurture just such a rich and productive dialogue.
Our capacity-building efforts at the country level seeks to empower countries to do the same.
As we look forward, we must be as well prepared as possible for what is to come.
Rest assured that UN DESA will continue to further strengthen and expand our capacities to effectively support the forward-looking implementation of the 2030 Agenda.
Thank you.